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KMID : 1124020170330020129
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Korean Social Security Studies
2017 Volume.33 No. 2 p.129 ~ p.151
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Financial Projection of Long-Term Care Insurance in according to Population Ageing
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Lee Ho-Yong
Moon Yong-Pil
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Abstract
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The purpose of this study is to propose policy implications for enhancing the sustainability of the system in the future due to the aging of the population by predicting recipients and finances of long-term care insurance for the elderly who are in the 10th year of introduction of the system. The research method was based on previous studies, population growth scenario, and scenario expenditure. The analytical method embodies the population assumptions (livelihood, seniority, and low) for each scenario, and estimates the financial outlook for the beneficiary and expenditures of long-term care insurance by 2060. As a result, the number of eligible subjects increased 4.5 times (from 468,000 at the end of 2015 to 2,090,000 in 2060), and the maximum was 2,482,000 (high population scenario) and at least 1,726,000 (low population scenario). The fiscal expenditure was estimated to increase by 19.6 times from 4.2 trillion won in 2015 to at least 82.2 trillion won in 2060 (the median of the population) and to increase by 23.3 times to a maximum of 98 trillion won (high population). In view of the changes in the recipients of the elderly population in the future, the government has proposed policy measures such as expanding the premiums, subsidizing the national treasury, and diversifying financial resources to expand the beneficiaries.
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KEYWORD
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long-term care insurance, financial projection, Population Ageing, beneficiary, demand of LTC
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